ACC News Brief
Extreme Weather Global
Official forecast - El Nino is a natural cycle and regional impacts vary
Very strong El Nino raises extreme-weather stakes into 2027
What happened
The World Meteorological Organization says El Nino is firmly established and is expected to strengthen to a very strong event before peaking toward the end of 2026. Its forecast centers put the likelihood that El Nino persists through February 2027 at nearly 100 percent, with unusually warm tropical Pacific waters and mutually reinforcing ocean and atmospheric signals supporting the outlook.
ACC context
El Nino is naturally occurring and is not caused by climate change. Its strength alone does not determine severity in any one place, and other ocean conditions can reinforce or weaken regional effects.
Why it matters
A very strong El Nino increases the likelihood of major shifts in rainfall, temperature, drought, flood, and heat risk. Preparedness should rely on national and regional forecasts because the same global event does not produce the same impacts everywhere.
What to watch
- WMO and national forecast updates on the event's peak intensity and duration.
- Regional seasonal outlooks for rainfall, heat, drought, and flood risk rather than one global assumption.
- Preparedness measures that account for other ocean conditions and local vulnerability.
Sources & evidence
- El Nino set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027World Meteorological Organization forecast update published September 3, 2026, with an outlook through February 2027.
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