ACC News Brief
Climate Data Global
MODELED OUTLOOK - the 1.2 percent rise and 8.94 billion tonnes are forecasts, not observed final demand
IEA raises its 2026 coal-demand outlook after LNG disruption
What happened
The International Energy Agency's Coal Mid-Year Update forecasts global coal demand to rise 1.2 percent in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion tonnes. The IEA had expected a slight year-over-year decline, but disrupted LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz raised gas prices and encouraged fuel switching toward coal in several markets. High oil prices and expectations of a strong El Nino also contribute to the revision.
ACC context
The forecast is highly sensitive to conflict, LNG shipping, gas prices, weather, cooling demand, and hydropower. The IEA says the 2027 direction could change if shipping and gas prices recover, so a further coal increase is not inevitable.
Why it matters
The reversal shows how conflict and fuel-price shocks can interrupt progress away from coal even when coal itself does not move through the disrupted route. Energy-security planning that lowers exposure to volatile fossil-fuel supply can also protect climate progress.
What to watch
- Whether LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and gas prices ease.
- Actual 2026 coal consumption data, which could differ from the mid-year forecast.
- How El Nino-related cooling demand and hydropower conditions affect Asian coal use.
Sources & evidence
- Global coal demand set to increase this year amid Middle East conflictIEA news release published September 10, 2026, summarizing its revised 2026 and uncertain 2027 outlook.
- Coal Mid-Year Update 2026IEA sector update underlying the September 2026 coal-demand forecast.
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