ACC News Brief
Resilience United States
NOAA outlook finds drought risk splitting sharply across U.S. regions
What happened
NOAA's August 20 seasonal outlook expects drought to persist or expand across much of the Pacific Northwest, High Plains, and parts of the Great Plains through November. It favors improvement across parts of the Southwest, Rockies, Southeast, and southern Northeast, while drought is expected to worsen in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Why it matters
The outlook shows why drought planning cannot rely on one national headline. Water managers, farms, utilities, ecosystems, and communities face very different seasonal risks, and the forecast is a probability-based planning tool rather than a guarantee for any location.
What to watch
- Whether strong El Nino conditions shift autumn precipitation as expected across each region.
- Changes in reservoir levels, soil moisture, wildfire risk, crop stress, and local water restrictions.
- NOAA's monthly updates, because short-lived storms can change local conditions without reversing a seasonal trend.
Sources & evidence
- U.S. Seasonal Drought OutlookNOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook released August 20, 2026, valid through November 30, 2026.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook assessmentNOAA forecast discussion describing regional persistence, development, improvement, and uncertainty.
Continue learning with ACC
Explore ACC's climate resilience guide
