ACC News Brief
Clean Energy Australia’s National Electricity Market
Official 10-year system forecast
AEMO sees stronger near-term grid reliability, with delivery risks after 2030
What happened
AEMO’s 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities says about 9.1 GW of new generation and storage reached full output in 2025–26, while committed and anticipated projects total about 40 GW. Its committed-and-anticipated assessment identifies no reliability gap before 2030, then models regional gaps beginning in 2030–31 if replacement supply, storage, transmission, and flexibility do not arrive in time. AEMO also forecasts National Electricity Market data-center electricity use rising from about 5 TWh, or 3% of grid supply, in 2025–26 to 34 TWh, or 13%, by 2035–36.
ACC context
The 9.1 GW connected figure describes capacity that reached full output; the 40 GW figure is a mixed committed and anticipated pipeline, not 40 GW already operating. AEMO’s reliability gaps are model signals based on assumptions and simulated unserved energy—not predictions that a specific blackout will occur. AEMO says the pathway depends on timely delivery and operating availability, and its report expressly warns that forecast and actual results can differ materially.
Why it matters
Demand is projected to grow as buildings and industry electrify and data centers expand, while aging generators retire. The report shows that nameplate pipeline totals alone are not enough: project completion, transmission, storage duration, demand flexibility, consumer resources, and performance during long system-stress periods all affect reliability.
What to watch
- Whether the 40 GW committed/anticipated pipeline reaches commissioning milestones on schedule, and which projects are delayed or withdrawn.
- Regional reliability assessments from 2030–31 onward, especially New South Wales and Victoria, and AEMO’s seasonal reserve decisions.
- Data-center connection attrition, ramp-up, and actual consumption compared with AEMO’s 5-to-34 TWh forecast.
Sources & evidence
- Reliability can be maintained with timely investment as demand growsAustralian Energy Market Operator official media release published August 25, 2026. It supports the 9.1 GW, 40 GW, pre-2030 reliability, continued-investment condition, and data-center demand figures.
- 2026 Electricity Statement of OpportunitiesAEMO’s official 124-page report, published August 25, 2026. It covers 2026–27 through 2035–36, separates operating capacity from project-development classifications, and states that forecast and actual outcomes can differ.
- NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities hubAEMO’s stable report index, accessed August 26, 2026, with the report, appendices, workbook, and forecasting-methodology links dated August 25.
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