ACC News Brief
Climate Data China
Expert estimate - not China's final official emissions inventory
China's Q2 emissions estimate falls 1 percent but the half-year remains marginally up
What happened
An analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta estimates that China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement fell 1 percent year over year in the second quarter. Oil use was estimated to have fallen 9 percent overall and 16 percent in transport, while coal-fired power rebounded. After a 2 percent first-quarter increase, emissions remained marginally higher across the first half of 2026.
ACC context
One quarter does not establish a durable emissions peak. The estimate combines official and industry data, and temporary supply disruption, inventory changes, and behavior shifts complicate the interpretation.
Why it matters
The estimated decline is the first in this series attributed primarily to lower oil consumption rather than lower coal use. Expanding electric vehicles, rail, and public transport added structural downward pressure, but the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption, inventory drawdowns, and changed behavior also mattered.
What to watch
- Later official and industry data that revise or confirm the second-quarter estimate.
- Whether lower transport oil demand persists after temporary supply and inventory effects fade.
- Coal-power trends, renewable integration, and market reforms that determine the broader emissions path.
Sources & evidence
- Analysis: China's CO2 emissions fall in Q2 2026 due to plummeting oil useCarbon Brief guest analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta published September 3, 2026, using official and industry data for April through June.
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