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EDGAR ESTIMATE - excludes LULUCF and differs from national inventory accounting
JRC estimates global GHG emissions at 54 GtCO2e in 2025, excluding land use
What happened
The European Commission's Joint Research Centre estimates that human activities emitted a record 54 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent in 2025, excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry. That was 0.7 percent above 2024. Six of 16 major emitters reduced emissions, while the United States rose 2.2 percent, China was nearly flat at plus 0.1 percent, India fell 0.2 percent, and the European Union fell 0.2 percent.
ACC context
These are harmonized EDGAR estimates, not final national inventory submissions. The JRC explicitly notes that its EU figures use a different basis from the inventory used to track EU targets.
Why it matters
A slower growth rate and declines in several major economies have not yet produced a global peak. Comparable sector-by-sector estimates help identify where progress and renewed increases occurred.
What to watch
- Whether the near-flat results for China and India persist in later estimates and official inventories.
- Changes in United States energy emissions after the 2025 increase.
- How land-use emissions and wildfire losses alter the broader net greenhouse-gas picture.
Sources & evidence
- Six of the 16 major emitters reduced their emissions in 2025Joint Research Centre announcement published September 7, 2026, based on the EDGAR global emissions dataset and report.
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