ACC News Brief
Climate Science Global terrestrial ecosystems
Peer-reviewed model and inversion analysis - accepted manuscript, not direct measurement of every ecosystem
Rising seasonal carbon release erodes nearly half of the land sink's gain
What happened
Researchers combining atmospheric inversion estimates with 16 terrestrial-biosphere models found that stronger peak carbon uptake and a longer uptake period increased annual land carbon storage over 1993-2022. Rising maximum carbon release offset 44 plus or minus 20 percent of that gain. The net land sink still strengthened over the study period; the finding is that release is consuming a substantial share of the improvement, not that the land sink has disappeared.
ACC context
The result is model- and inversion-based. The publisher identifies the posted paper as an accepted, citable early version that may receive editorial changes before the version of record.
Why it matters
Climate projections and carbon budgets need to represent both uptake and release. Looking only at plant growth or a longer growing season can overstate how much carbon ecosystems retain.
What to watch
- The final version of record and any editorial or methodological clarifications.
- Field observations that test modeled changes in seasonal uptake and release across ecosystems.
- How Earth-system models represent heat, drought, respiration, growing seasons, and disturbance together.
Sources & evidence
- Increasing terrestrial carbon release offsets land sink enhancementNature Communications accepted article published September 2, 2026, combining atmospheric inversions with 16 terrestrial-biosphere models for 1993-2022.
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